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Check whether an arbitrage deal pencils out before you sign the lease: monthly profit, the occupancy you need to break even, and how fast your startup costs pay back.
The single most important output is breakeven occupancy. It tells you the occupancy rate at which short-term revenue covers rent and operating expenses. If your market realistically runs at 60-70% and your breakeven is 48%, you have a cushion; if breakeven is 75%, one slow season puts you underwater. Compare the breakeven against real market occupancy data, not best-case assumptions.
Payback period converts startup costs, such as the deposit, furniture, and setup, into months of profit. Deals that pay back in 12-18 months are often considered strong; much beyond 24 months and your capital is locked up through at least two seasonal cycles before it earns anything.
Two costs deserve special attention: rent, which is fixed whether or not guests book, and occupancy, which compounds every other number. Before signing, stress-test the deal at 10-15 points below your expected occupancy and confirm the lease explicitly allows short-term subletting.
